abstract

Future Developments in Telecommunications
Pressures such as service providers, technology, regulators, governments, customers, embedded equipment, developers, and dozens of other factors are impinging on this technological colossus and it is moving; sometimes slowly, but it is always moving.
The next decade in telecommunications will be most interesting and replete with opportunities .
The giants and startups alike have assessed the industry, made their moves, and some have flopped spectacularly.
The telecommunications industry has several unmistakable trends that will shape products and services in the future. IP is becoming a global language, wire is giving way to wireless, and broadband access unleashes a plethora of new services.
This time the monopoly is not nationwide, but on a regional basis it bears more than a casual resemblance to the old Bell System. Other trends that are already well underway include movement toward Ethernet and open source. Ethernet, is well entrenched in the LAN and in its 1G and 10G versions it will increasingly serve the metropolitan network. Open source protocols, operating systems, and software are a major disruptive force to the traditional developers. The trend is unmistakable, and will continue to provide users with attractive alternatives, even extending to PBXs.
Cable and Cellular Competitors
Many people expect voice over WiFi to provide a viable alternative to cellular/PCS, but WiFi hotspots cannot offer a reliable alternative to cellular because the frequencies are too limited and the protocols have too many quality problems. Moreover, WiFi is designed as a private network, not a common carrier service. WiMax, on the other hand, is lurking in the future. Its protocols are far from complete, but by about 2007 WiMax should be ready for the market as a credible platform on which service providers can offer VoIP.
WiMax will not only compete with cell phones (including 3G and 4G cellular), it is expected to be suitable for access, competing directly with cable and DSL. In some localities it may become the primary means of access. WiMAX can potentially do for metropolitan area wireless what WiFi did for wireless LANs. Prestandard products are on the market now, well ahead of the expected 2007-8 protocol approval. Both the cable companies and the ILECs are studying the feasibility of IPTV: bringing video on demand to the customer over a broadband pipe. This displaces the old service model of passing all channels by every cable customer and replaces it with video that can be customized at the source. Instead of being restricted to a single view of live program material, the originator can send multiple views, which allows the viewers to select the ones they prefer.
IPTV, in trials today, holds out the promise of personalizing video reception beyond the limited manipulations that are possible with video hard disk drives. Another trend that is apt to occur is barely visible: a shift from broadcasting to narrowcasting. One of the hottest products on the market is the i-Pod, which gives users a choice of hours of their own musical selections. For video, devices such as DVD recorders, and the old standby VCR give users a choice of what to watch and when they want to watch it without being bombarded with annoying commercials. They are also subject to competition from satellite providers, but these cannot compete favorably for access, which gives the cable companies a big advantage.
Wireless
It is safe to predict that wireless will have a vigorous future.The spectrum is limited and competition for it is intense. Many people see WiFi as a key technology, but its limitations will prevent it from becoming more than is intended to be, which is a LAN alternative. Its spectrum and range are too limited to create a metropolitan network service. Hot spots in airports and other transportation centers have great potential. The airlines are preparing to offer WiFi in their cabins and this should prove to be enormously attractive.
The desire for cellular service is nothing short of astounding, particularly when you watch the development in third-world nations, and consider the amount of money that people pay for trivial accessories such as customized ringing tones. New cell phones support video, albeit on a miniature screen, and content providers are beginning to offer custom video clips. How far the market for this will extend is anyone’s guess, but society has demonstrated a boundless willingness to pay for entertainment. Fourth generation wireless standards are under development, and an industry group is working on an interim service known as Super 3G that may be ready in 2007. Super 3G would have downstream speeds as high as 100 Mbps.